AI Is Here. Are We Ready for What Comes Next?

 

I have been thinking about AI lately.

The more I use it, the more I feel that AI is no longer something coming in the future.

AI is already here.

And I have a feeling that it is going to divide people in ways we have not fully understood yet.

At first, I see two broad groups.

There are people who believe in AI—or at least accept that it is here—and are willing to use it.

Then there are people who are afraid of AI, don't trust it, or simply don't want to have anything to do with it.

I can understand both sides.

But I wonder what will happen over the next five or ten years.

The people who use AI

Those who learn to work with AI may gradually gain an advantage.

It doesn't necessarily mean they are smarter.

They may simply have a very powerful assistant beside them.

AI can help them research, write, translate, learn, analyze information, create images and videos, solve problems and explore ideas.

The interesting thing is that the advantage can compound.

Use AI → learn more → become more productive → discover more possibilities → use AI even better.

Eventually, the difference between an AI user and a non-user could become quite significant.

And perhaps people won't actually be replaced by AI.

They may be replaced by people who know how to use AI.

That is a much more uncomfortable thought.

What about people who refuse to use AI?

I don't blame people who are cautious.

There are legitimate reasons to be concerned.

AI can make mistakes. It can produce convincing nonsense. It can be misused. And we still don't fully understand where this technology is taking us.

But completely refusing to learn about AI may become a problem.

Imagine someone ten years from now saying:

"I don't use AI. I don't believe in it."

That might be like saying today:

"I don't use the internet."

You can probably survive without it.

But you may find yourself increasingly left behind.

Then there is another group

Unfortunately, not everyone will use AI for good purposes.

Some people will use it to cheat, deceive and make money dishonestly.

AI can make fraud and misinformation much easier to produce and distribute.

A dishonest person with a powerful AI assistant can potentially accomplish far more than before.

The technology doesn't know whether its user is honest or dishonest.

It simply amplifies the user's ability.

A good person can use AI to create.

A dishonest person can use AI to manipulate.

That is something we should not underestimate.

And then there is the military

There is an even bigger concern.

Governments and militaries around the world are developing AI capabilities.

AI could become increasingly important in intelligence, cybersecurity, surveillance, military planning and autonomous systems.

And once countries believe that their competitors are moving ahead, there will be tremendous pressure to move even faster.

Nobody wants to be the country that falls behind.

This creates another kind of AI race.

And that one worries me more than someone using ChatGPT to write an email.

Is AI becoming Frankenstein's monster?

This brings me to Frankenstein.

Mary Shelley's Frankenstein was not simply a story about a monster.

It was also a story about human beings creating something powerful without fully understanding the consequences.

That is why I think the Frankenstein comparison is so interesting when we talk about AI.

Perhaps AI itself isn't the monster.

Perhaps the monster is what happens when human technological power grows faster than human wisdom.

We are creating incredibly powerful tools.

But are our laws ready?

Are our schools ready?

Are our politicians ready?

Are our businesses ready?

Are ordinary people ready?

I'm not sure.

In fact, I think the honest answer is no.

The real division may be different

Perhaps the future won't simply divide us into people who use AI and people who don't.

It may divide us into:

People who use AI wisely and people who use it carelessly.

And perhaps there will be another division:

People who control AI and people who become controlled by AI.

That second possibility deserves serious thought.

If we allow AI to do all our thinking, writing, researching and decision-making, we may become more efficient—but not necessarily wiser.

I don't want that.

I enjoy using AI precisely because it gives me another mind to talk to.

But I still want to think for myself.

I question it. I disagree with it. Sometimes I tell it that I think it is wrong.

That conversation is important.

AI should be a companion and assistant, not a replacement for our own judgment.

Are we ready?

Probably not.

But I don't think the answer is to run away from AI.

The answer is to learn.

Learn what AI can do.

Learn what it cannot do.

Learn when to trust it.

Learn when to question it.

And, most importantly, learn how to remain human while using increasingly intelligent machines.

I am an 80-year-old grandfather, not an AI scientist.

But perhaps that gives me a slightly different perspective.

I don't know where this AI journey will end.

Nobody does.

But I do know one thing:

AI is here.

We can fear it.

We can ignore it.

We can misuse it.

Or we can learn to live with it responsibly.

The technology may become extraordinarily powerful.

The real test will be whether human wisdom grows fast enough to keep up with it.

Perhaps that is the real Frankenstein story we are writing today.

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AI 已经来了：我们准备好迎接它了吗？

最近，我一直在想一个问题。

AI 已经不再是一个遥远的未来。

AI 已经来了。

而且我有一种感觉，随着 AI 越来越深入我们的生活，人类社会可能会出现一些新的分化。

最简单的分法，我首先想到两类人。

一类是相信 AI、接受 AI，并且愿意学习使用 AI 的人。

另一类是害怕 AI、不信任 AI，或者干脆拒绝使用 AI 的人。

我可以理解这两种态度。

但是，我也开始想：未来五年、十年之后，这两群人的差距会不会越来越大？

使用 AI 的人

愿意学习使用 AI 的人，很可能会逐渐获得一些优势。

这并不一定表示他们比别人聪明。

他们只是多了一个非常强大的助手。

AI 可以帮助我们寻找资料、写文章、翻译、学习、分析资料、制作图片和视频、解决问题，也可以帮助我们产生新的想法。

更有意思的是，这种优势可能会不断累积。

使用 AI → 学得更多 → 做事更有效率 → 发现更多可能 → 更会使用 AI。

这样下去，AI 用户和完全不用 AI 的人的差距，可能会越来越明显。

所以，也许未来人们并不是直接被 AI 淘汰。

而是被懂得使用 AI 的人淘汰。

这个想法其实更值得我们认真面对。

那些不愿意使用 AI 的人呢？

我不会责怪那些对 AI 保持警惕的人。

他们有充分的理由担心。

AI 会犯错误，会产生看起来很有道理、其实完全错误的内容，也可能被人滥用。

我们甚至还没有完全弄清楚 AI 最终会把人类带到哪里。

但是，如果完全拒绝了解 AI，未来可能也会成为一种问题。

想象一下，十年以后还有人说：

“我不用 AI，我不相信 AI。”

这会不会有点像今天有人说：

“我不用互联网。”

当然，你还是可以生活。

但是，你可能会发现自己越来越跟不上这个社会。

还有另外一群人

更值得担心的是，并不是所有人都会用 AI 做好事。

有人会利用 AI 欺骗、作弊、诈骗，甚至利用 AI 来赚钱。

AI 可以让制造假消息、假图片、假声音和各种骗人的内容变得更加容易。

一个有强大 AI 助手的坏人，可能比过去一个普通的坏人拥有大得多的影响力。

AI 本身并不知道使用它的人是好人还是坏人。

它只是把人的能力放大。

好人可以用 AI 创造。

坏人也可以用 AI 操纵别人。

这可能是我们必须认真面对的问题。

然后还有军方

还有一个更大的问题。

世界各国的政府和军方也在发展 AI 能力。

AI 将来可能越来越多地应用在情报、网络安全、监控、军事计划以及自动化武器系统等领域。

而一旦一个国家认为竞争对手正在领先，它就会有很大的压力继续加速。

没有哪个国家愿意在这场竞争中落后。

于是，AI 可能形成另一种新的军备竞赛。

老实说，这比有人用 ChatGPT 帮忙写一封电子邮件，更让我担心。

AI 会不会成为 Frankenstein 的怪物？

这让我想起了 Frankenstein（弗兰肯斯坦）的故事。

Mary Shelley 写的 Frankenstein，并不只是一个关于“怪物”的故事。

它其实也是一个关于人类创造出强大事物，却没有完全理解其后果的故事。

所以，我觉得把 Frankenstein 用来比喻今天的 AI，很有意思。

也许 AI 本身并不是那个怪物。

真正可怕的，是人类的科技力量发展得太快，而人类的智慧、责任感和制度却没有跟上。

我们正在创造越来越强大的工具。

但是，我们的法律准备好了吗？

我们的学校准备好了吗？

我们的政治制度准备好了吗？

我们的企业准备好了吗？

普通人准备好了吗？

我不太确定。

老实说，我认为答案可能是：

还没有。

真正的分化可能不是“用 AI”与“不用 AI”

也许未来人类社会真正的分化，不只是：

使用 AI 的人 vs. 不使用 AI 的人。

而可能是：

懂得正确使用 AI 的人 vs. 不懂得正确使用 AI 的人。

还有一种更加值得我们警惕的分化：

控制 AI 的人 vs. 被 AI 控制的人。

后面这一点让我特别值得思考。

如果我们把所有思考、写作、研究和决定都交给 AI，我们可能会变得更加有效率。

但是，我们不一定会变得更加有智慧。

我不希望这样。

我喜欢使用 AI，正因为它可以成为我的另一个思考伙伴。

但是我仍然希望自己思考。

我会质疑它，也会不同意它。

有时候，我甚至会告诉它：

“我认为你错了。”

我觉得这种人与 AI 之间的交流非常重要。

AI 应该是我们的助手和伙伴，而不是取代我们自己的判断力。

我们准备好了吗？

也许还没有。

但是，我也不认为答案是逃避 AI。

答案应该是：

学习。

学习 AI 能做什么。

学习 AI 不能做什么。

学习什么时候可以相信它。

学习什么时候必须质疑它。

更重要的是，学习如何在使用越来越聪明的机器时，仍然保持我们自己的人性。

我只是一个 80 岁的退休爷爷，并不是 AI 科学家。

但是，也许正因为如此，我看 AI 的角度有一点不同。

我不知道这条 AI 之路最后会走到哪里。

其实没有人知道。

但是有一点我很确定：

AI 已经来了。

我们可以害怕它。

可以忽视它。

可以滥用它。

也可以学习如何负责任地与它一起生活。

AI 可能会变得非常强大。

真正的考验是：

人类的智慧，能不能成长得足够快，跟得上自己创造出来的 AI？

也许，这才是我们今天正在写下的真正的 Frankenstein 故事。