DeepSeek - ChatGPT explained

 

並非誇大。如果你做過這門技術的研究，就會知道製造智能的程式非常艱難。現時OpenAI是最早創新的大模式，它的始創人 Sam Altman 被業界視為神童，各外媒和業者大力鼓吹它。連拜登也認為美國將會領先第四次工業革命，將再雄覇世界。過去兩年間，人們沒有認為這信念是誇大。而且，拜登政府在 AI 領域刻意打壓中國，禁止高端芯片如NVIDIA 的 H100 芯片賣給中國。因為要開發和訓練一個AI 模式需要十萬以上的高端芯片。這制裁將會令中國在AI 領域停頓。

可惜事與願違。有一個無名的中國小子，名叫張文鋒，創立了一間start-up， 只用了550 萬美元，2 千幾個普通的芯片，便劊造出一個AI 模式，而且它在速度和性能遠遠超越世界所有其他大AI 模式。所有AI 業者，學界和整個IT行業甚為驚訝，他們認為不可思議的，因為美國所有大IT 公司如 Microsoft，Google，Meta，Amazon和 OpenAI 皆需要數以十萬計的芯片和億萬元計的投資才可以建造一個可行的AI 大模式，而且他們用了幾年和大量的人力物力，現在卻被一個黃毛小子打敗，而且是遠遠被拋離。

   

這事件有很重大的後果：（1）它證明拜登制裁和打壓中國AI 發展失敗； (2) 中國在AI 領域不是落後於美國，而且將會領先世界；(3) 因為張文鋒的公司DeepSeek和 Alibaba 同時宣布，他們的程式和數字庫是 Open Source, 全世界的 AI 業者皆可以取得和輕易發展，百花齊放，將會令所有美國大IT 公司血本無歸，將來還要對付來自中國和全世界的競爭者；(3) 因為DeepSeek 和 Alibaba 收取用戶的費用很低，大約是OpenAI 所收的百分之一以下，所以，將來在中國民間和工商界，AI 的應用將會飛升，中國，而並非美國，將會領導世界的第四次工業革命 ；(4) Nvidia 的業績成長速度將會降慢，因為現在股民預期它會有高度增長速度，所以它的股價高昂，但當股民認為它的增長速度放慢，它的股價必會下滑。這現象也會發生在 AMD， INTEL, QCOM 身上。所以近兩星期以來，它們的服價下滑。

     

近年美國股市狂飆，原因是股民預期AI 發展將會帶來很多的經濟紅利, 美國將繼續領導世界經濟。現在這個預測看來是過火了。所以，美股將會有可觀的調整。

It's not an exaggeration. If you've researched this technology, you'll know that creating intelligent programs is extremely challenging. Currently, OpenAI is the frontrunner in large-scale innovation. Its founder, Sam Altman, is regarded as a prodigy in the industry, widely praised by international media and peers. Even President Biden believes that the U.S. will lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution and dominate the world again. Over the past two years, this belief has not been considered an exaggeration. Moreover, the Biden administration has deliberately suppressed China's AI development by banning the sale of high-end chips, such as NVIDIA's H100 chips, to China. Developing and training an AI model requires over 100,000 high-end chips, and these sanctions were intended to stall China's progress in AI.

However, things have not gone as planned. A little-known Chinese individual named Zhang Wenfeng founded a startup and, with only $5.5 million and just over 2,000 regular chips, created an AI model that surpasses all other global large AI models in both speed and performance. The entire AI industry, academia, and the broader IT sector are astonished, finding it inconceivable. In contrast, major U.S. IT companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, and OpenAI need hundreds of thousands of chips and billions of dollars in investment to build a viable large AI model, requiring years of effort and immense resources. Yet, this "unknown young upstart" has not only matched them but has left them far behind.

This development has significant implications:

It proves that Biden's sanctions and suppression of China's AI development have failed.

China is not lagging behind the U.S. in AI but is poised to lead the world.

Zhang Wenfeng's company, DeepSeek, and Alibaba have announced that their programs and datasets are open source. This means AI developers worldwide can access and develop them easily, fostering widespread innovation. This will likely cause major U.S. IT companies to suffer immense losses and face intense competition from China and the global market.

DeepSeek and Alibaba charge users a fraction of OpenAI's fees—less than 1%—which will significantly boost AI adoption across China's public and private sectors. Consequently, China, not the U.S., is likely to lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

NVIDIA's growth rate is expected to slow down. Its stock price, inflated by investors' expectations of high growth, is likely to drop as growth slows. Similar effects will be seen in AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm stocks, which have already started to decline over the past two weeks.

In recent years, the U.S. stock market has surged due to investor expectations that AI development will yield significant economic benefits and keep the U.S. leading the global economy. However, this forecast now appears overblown, suggesting that the U.S. stock market may undergo a substantial correction.